I recently saw this posting on TV By the Numbers regarding the historical ratings of the Oscars. Much has been made over how the event’s ratings are tied to how popular the nominated movies are so I decided to take a closer look. Since TV By the Numbers had the ratings information for all the Academy Awards broadcasts between 1974 and 2008, I compiled out the domestic grosses for all the Best Picture nominees for all those years and then compared the two sets.

The peak for 1974 is not completely accurate since the domestic figures for the two nominees, A Touch of Class and Cries and Whispers, are not available. Still, what is apparent from the chart is that the Oscar ratings do rise and fall somewhat with the best picture nominees’ gross. Looking at the results, I noted the following:

Average gross, 1974-2008: $85.1 million
Average audience, 1974-2008: 43.02 million viewers
Peak average gross: $199.5 million (1998)
Peak audience: 55.2 million viewers (1998)

I also calculated some ratios based on the relationship between viewers and the average gross.

Ratio 1 (1974-2008): 0.59
Ratio 2 (gross<$85 million, 2000-2008): 0.61
Ratio 3 (2008): 0.45

I then tried to figure out what size audience this year’s Oscars would have based on these parameters. This year the Best Picture nominees are currently running a below-average gross of $54.7 million.

Current total U.S. Box Office Gross for 2009 Oscar Best Picture Nominees
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: $122.6 million
Frost/Nixon: $16.6 million
Milk: $26.7 million
The Reader: $19.6 million
Slumdog Millionaire: $88.1 million

However, this average will rise since the movies haven’t finished their box office run yet. This is especially relevant for the finally tallies of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Slumdog Millionaire whose totals I believe will respectively approximate $150 and $100 million. This would render an average nominee gross of around $61 million. Based upon a ratio#2 of 0.61 this year’s Oscars would yield approximately 33 million viewers. However, since the ratings have been dropping over the past few years, and last year’s ratio was only 0.45, I would substitute this ratio to predict this year’s audience will be around 28 million.