The Emmys broadcast last Sunday on NBC attracted 13.5 million viewers, making it the largest non-sports audience so far in 2010, at least since the airing of FOX’s American Idol finale on May 26. This is also the largest audience the Emmys has had in four years but it’s still over a quarter less than what the awards attracted 10 years ago.

The Oscars also had a similar ratings rebound this year, garnering the highest ratings since 2005. The Oscars are also off their ratings highs of 50+ million viewers (achieved in 1983 and 1998), but althought they’re down the Oscars haven’t lost as much audience percentagewise as the Emmys.

In any case as far as viewership these television events pale in comparison to major sporting events. This year the Superbowl attracted a record audience of 106.5 million, well over double the audience of the Oscars and close to ten times that of the Emmys. Incidentally the World Cup Final had only 24.3 million viewers, which places it in third place behind the Oscars.

Two telenovelas have made waves recently in the U.S., for each of the major Hispanic broadcasters. ¿Dónde está Elisa?, based on a Chilean soap of the same name, aired on Telemundo at 10 p.m. between March and August and improved the ratings for the time period 30% over the previous telenovela, Los Victorinos. Elisa even managed to tie or beat Univision programming during two evenings during its run, a pretty fair feat in primetime for Telemundo.

At 10 p.m. Univision presents a variety of programming, mainly talk shows and series. In Hispanic proramming it is inherently risky to step away from telenovela genre, which Univision presents during the first part of its primetime, but it is also necessary in order to present a varied menu to an audience. Telemundo actually has an inverse strategy, programming a game show at 7 p.m. and then shifting into novelas for the remainder of primetime. However, Telemundo strips at 7 while Univision varies at 10, leading to a volatile ratings performance illustrated by sharp peaks and valleys in the graph above. Moreover, most of the high ratings were created by special programming. On average the regular shows at 10 p.m. only averaged a 1.47 household rating.

Still, the average rating for Univision at 10 p.m. began to rise after June, once the hot new telenovela Soy Tu Dueña aired at 9 p.m., creating a much stronger lead-in for the 10 p.m. time slot. Dueña has gone on to dominate the 9 p.m. slot and is currently averaging above a 2.5 household rating. It looks like Dueña is going to be the telenovela of 2010, just as Mañana es para Siempre was the big hit for Univision in 2009.

Unfortunately for Telemundo at 9 p.m., the recently premiered El Fantasma de Elena has been slightly underperforming, as compared to its predecessor Perro Amor. However Telemundo has recently announced a couple of new telenovela productions including Alguien Te Mira starring Danna Garcia and Christian Meier, which is likely to be a hit considering the track record of both actors.

Last week the fourth season of Mad Men premiered and while the episode was entertaining as always (I am a fan) the ratings were a mere 5% above last season’s premiere. This growth was also significantly lower than previous season premieres: 167% from Season 1 to 2, and 44% from Season 2 to 3. Also of concern is that the 18-49 demo rating remained flat at 0.9 ratings points or approximately 1.2 million viewers.

A great article posted yesterday in AdAge highlights while Mad Men has a relatively small audience, which has equally translated into not so many advertising dollars, it has still been a success since its premium status allows AMC to command higher carriage fees. According to SNL Kagan these are up on average up from 21 cents per subscriber in 2001 to 24  cents today. Similarly, Mad Men’s presence on AMC was obviously an important factor for the recent carriage dispute between AT&T U-Verse and Rainbow Media (subsidiary of Cablevision and owner of AMC); uncoicidentally a settlement was reached less than 10 days before the premiere of Mad Men season 4.

Still, if Mad Men’s ratings have apexed, as the recent premiere indicated, it is critical that AMC look towards other series to sustain the channel’s position in the long run. Breaking Bad, last year’s mini-series The Prisoner and the new series Rubicon, are all indications that AMC is doing precisely that. Rubicon’s premiere last night was actually the strongest ever for an AMC original production so perhaps they’ve finally found a show worthy of filling Mad Men’s shoes, whenever it’s gone. In the meantime I’ll just enjoy the episodes.

The World Cup is almost into the second round but the real competition might be taking place behind the cameras, between the broadcasters. In the U.S., two companies have television broadcast rights: Disney (ABC and ESPN) has the English-language rights and Univision (Univision, Telefutura and Galavision) has the Spanish-language rights.

It was expected that Unvision would do well in the ratings since their Latino audience is generally regarded as being more fanatical about soccer than the “gringo” viewers of ABC or even ESPN audience. This proved to be the case during the inaugural match when Univision drew 5.6 million viewers, almost double the audience of ESPN. However, Univision did not beat ESPN during any of the following seven matches, and got especially trounced during the England versus USA match which was attracted 10.8 million viewers on ABC; the largest audience for any U.S. World Cup match since 1994 .

The strong ratings for Univision and ESPN demonstrate both the strength of Univision (to compete effectively in sports against ESPN) and the growing attraction for soccer in the U.S. (since the ABC ratings have surprised most media pundits). It’s been difficult to get information for later telecasts but Univision did issue a press release for the Mexico versus France match noting that their audience of 5.8 million was double ESPN2′s and the most watched game to date for Univision during the 2010 World Cup. Odds are strong that this record will be broken by this Sunday when Argentina plays Mexico in a second-round match at 2:30 p.m. This is also likely to be another “victoria” for Univision against ESPN.

Two weeks ago ABC broadcast the final episode of Lost, a popular show that whose ratings I’ve been posting about every now and then. The last episode tallied 13.5 million viewers, which was more viewers than the season’s premiere (something that hasn’t happened since the first season) and the most viewers for any episode within two years.

As I’ve noted before, Lost consolidated a strong fan base during the first season, which led to a strong second season premiere. Over the course of that and later seasons however, the show steadily “lost” ratings. This could be attributed to a number of factors including its convoluted plot line, the 12 week hiatus the show took in the middle of the third season, the writers’ strike in 2007 which led to short fourth season, etc.

The show hit a ratings bottom in the twelth episode of the fifth season which had only 8.29 million viewers. The final sixth season saw a significant ratings bounce back, probably since a lot of viewers were interested in how the series was going to conclude.

Another factor that may have affected Lost’s downward ratings was overall viewership at ABC. The network was strong during the 2004-2005 season when Lost, Desperate Housewives and Grey’s Anatomy all premiered. Since then the network has had a few more hits, notably Dancing with the Stars, but has yet to produce another critically acclaimed drama. This season ABC did break out Modern Family this season, which I believe will run at least three seasons, but the “alphabet network” also lost the most viewers, both in general and in key advertising demos. It seems critical that ABC find some new strong shows during the 2010-2011 season.

Although I really love my new job in online advertising sales, as I previously worked for 12 years in TV, I am still irked when I hear media pundits declare the inevitability of television’s demise. It was thus with some sense of reassurance and satisfaction that I recently read the positive report by The Economist of the TV industry “Changing The Channel,” but perhaps it would be more aptly titled “TV Ain’t Dead Yet.” Among the report’s key points:

• Increased and better programming options: Clearly television is no longer the domain of the “big three” networks. A myriad of networks now proliferate resulting in greater programming options which satisfies more diverse interests, but also creates increased competition which improves overall quality.
• Increased viewing options: Besides having more things to watch consumers now have more options on how or when to view it. First of all there are more sets now in households. Secondly there are other platforms for viewing (iPods, Hulu, etc.). And finally there are also adjunct devices which allow consumers to record programming or view it on demand.
• Increased consumption: Programming and viewing improvemetns have yielded greater total consumption. On average a U.S. viewer watches over five hours of television per day, about a third more than what a person normally estimates.

The report also busts five myths surrounding the television industry:

• Myth #1, Death by DVR: Although DVRs have penetrated 34% of the market, time-shifted viewing is not threatening television’s advertising business model. Viewers will almost always watch live programming before considering recorded programs. This is backed up in a recent study by Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business which finds that 95% of people watch television live.
• Myth #2, Commercial Aversion: Even without DVRs it is believed that people ignore or evade commercial breaks, but a recent study by the Council on Research Excellence indicates that “TV advertising and programming promotions reach 85% of adults daily.”
• Myth #3, Online Viewing Cannibalization: It is also believed that online viewing is hurting television ratings but the average YouTube viewer watches only 15 minutes of video per day on the site, compared with five hours in front of an actual television set. Online video certainly is an interesting, high-growth market, but it’s not substituting television.
• Myth #4, Shift to Mobile TV: A great deal of hype has also been given to to mobile TV, although it has yet to take hold in any country other than Japan or South Korea. And even in those markets it has yet to find a viable business model since mobile TV is free and advertising CPMs run only 10% of the TV market rate.

As much as I enjoyed the report I was disappointed that it barely touched on the potential of targeted television advertising, perhaps since it’s a technology which has taken so long to be applied in the industry. Combing the mass audience of television with the audience targeting capabilities of the internet would immortalize television, not that it’s going away anytime soon.

I wanted to follow my last post on U.S. Spanish language TV ratings by focusing just on telenovelas, and how their similar storylines draw similar audience flows.

This analysis is based on the same data as the previous post, a consolidation of household (HH) ratings data from archived newsletters, dating back to April 3, 2009. Ratings were not available for certain dates when the newsletter was on hiatus, most importantly between December 18th and the 28th.

The following graph charts the ratings from beginning to end for various 8 p.m and 9 p.m. telenovelas on Univision. Initial episode ratings for certain titles are not shown since they began before April. The biggest performer within this group is Mañana Es Para Siempre, who began to rise in viewership during its last 46 episodes.  Similar audience increases are also seen for Sortilegio and slightly for En Nombre del Amor. These rises demonstrate how viewers tune in more often once a telenovela becomes “caliente,” once the viewers have become engaged with its characters and the plotline begins to reach climactic points before reaching a big finish. It’s the natural cycle of telenovelas. Not all titles follow this rule however, as in the case of this group’s underperfomer, Ciudado con el Angel. This title market the lowest rating (1.5 on April 10) and also experienced a gradual ratings decline during its final episodes, an unusual reversal of the norm.

For Telemundo I also got together various titles, albeit from a broader time periods since Telemundo programs telenovelas during their entire primetime at 8, 9 and 10 p.m. The highest overall performer seems to have been Mas Sabe el Diablo, but it might be usurped by the recently started ¿Dónde ésta Elisa? which opened up at 10 p.m with a respectable audience of 826,000 viewers and a 0.7 HH rating.

¿Dónde ésta Elisa? has maintained or increased its HH rating since then, which is quite extraordinary, as audience normally decreases for a a telenovela after the premiere episode before bouncing back. This enduring viewership could be due to the title’s mystery plot, which focuses on a young girl who is kidnapped in the first episode. This effective plotline will likely be replicated in future telenovelas.

I love reading about television ratings but not much coverage is given to Hispanic channels, an unusual discrepancy considering that 16% of the U.S. population and 11% of TV households are Hispanic. The lack of coverage may be due to the fact that Hispanic programming is so diferente. During weekday primetime Univision and Telemundo program mostly telenovelas, which run around 120 episodes or five months long. This stripped programming results in a more stable audience flow, which occasionally changes in the event of substituted programming or as a telenovela becomes frio or caliente.

Utilizin email newsletters archives between April 2009 and February 2010 I compiled the weekday ratings for these Univision and Telemundo during the 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. time periods. Certain dates were not available but I believe that an overall performance picture emerged. The numbered points in the graph indicate notable highs and lows.

Highs and Lows for Univision at 8 PM

1) April 10, 2009 (Good Friday): 1.5 rating for Cuidado Con el Angel. I am not completely why this telenovela dropped this much that day (37% on a week to week basis). It may have something to do with the fact that it was Good Friday, and that many Hispanic Catholic families were at church. This might not be the case since Telemundo dropped only 16% from the previous day and 28% from the previous Friday. Angel’s bigger decline might really indicate a poor performance. The telenovela does continue to have lower audience levels until on July 3, upon which the time period improves with the new novela En Nombre del Amor.

2) October 5, 2009: 3.0 rating for the finale of Mañana Es Para Siempre (average for the night). This night a special three hour finale for wildly popular 9 p.m. telenovela Mañana Es Para Siempre was programmed. More about this later.

3) November 5, 2009: 3.0 rating for Latin Grammys (average for the night). This demonstrates how Hispanic-themed awards specials can greatly improve a time period, by about 50% in this case.

4-5) November 26 and December 31, 2009 (Thanksgiving and New Year’s): 0.8 and 0.9 ratings for special holiday programming. These drops of roughly 50% are parallel to what Telemundo experiences during the same nights (see points 10 and 11 below). The low audience levels may be due to either the holidays lowering television viewing or lack of interest in the special programming. I don’t have information for Christmas for comparison.

6) February 18, 2010: 2.9 rating for Premio Lo Nuestro (average for the night). Just like the Latin Grammys, this award special greatly improved the time period’s ratings.

Highs and Lows for Telemundo at 8 PM

7) April 23, 2009: 1.0 rating for Premios Billboard. This 50% bump is the same that the Latin Grammys and Premio Lo Nuestro gave Univision.

8 ) June 24, 2009: 1.0 rating for soccer match between Mexico and Venezuela. Games or specials, often programmed by Telemundo, boosted their ratings between 20% and 100%.

9) October 14, 2009: 1.2 rating for soccer match between Mexico and Trinidad & Tobago; another big winner.

10-11) November 26 and December 31, 2009 (Thanksgiving and New Year’s):  0.4 and o.3 rating for special holiday programming.

Highs and Lows for Univision at 9 PM

1) April 10, 2009: 2.1 rating for Mañana Es Para Siempre, lower than the usual  This is mostly due to the poor lead-in that night from Cuidado Con El Angel. Mañana Es Para Siempre would later attract much greater audience levels, finishing out with the highest rating for any program within the data I obtained.

2) October 5, 2009: 3.0 rating for the three hour finale of Mañana Es Para Siempre (average for the night). The finale had an average of 7.3 million viewers, and was the #2 broadcast of that night among Adults 18-34. This ratings peak was followed by a lower start for Sortilegio, which eventually also found rose in ratings, until its conclusion on February 17, the day before Premio Lo Nuestro (see point 6), upon which the ratings dropped again for the start of Corazon Salvaje.

3) November 5, 2009: 3.0 rating for the Latin Grammys (average for the night).

4) November 26, 2009: 0.8 rating for movie special.

5) December 31, 2009: 0.9 rating for special programming.

6) February 17 and 18, 2010: On February 17 Univision had the finale for Sortilegio, which drew a 3.1 household rating, with an average of 6.6 million viewers and beating ABC, CBS and the CW. On the following night Premio Lo Nuestro had a 2.9 rating. The drop that follows reflects the start of a new telenovela, Corazon Salvaje.

Highs and Lows for Telemundo at 9 PM

7) April 23, 2009: 1.0 rating for Premios Billboard. See point 7 in the 8 PM analysis.

8 ) October 14, 2009: 1.2 rating for soccer match between Mexico and Trinidad & Tobago.

One of the big takeaways from this analysis was that both Telemundo and Univision have relatively stable ratings resulting from the telenovelas, which requires loyalty required to follow plotlines, the absence of repeat episodes, and the fact that telenovelas are stripped programming. On the major broadcast networks like ABC, CBS, Fox or NBC, audience levels are often more volatile, as popular shows are much more widely scattered across the grid. It would be interesting to study this historical volatility and see if it’s attributable to the far more fragmented audiences of today. Given their ratings stability, and a younger skewing audience (a benefit of the Hispanic Market Univision often beats major broadcast networks in the 18-49 demographic, especially on Fridays nights when the ratings for other broadcast networks dip significantly allowing Univision to sometime lead that night.

Last night CBS attracted an average of 106.5 million viewers during its transmission of Super Bowl XLIV, which effectively made it the most watched broadcast program of all time. While the Super Bowl has always been a major broadcast event in the United States its average audience has been growing steadily at around 2.3% since 2000. Last night’s broadcast was the final push, that finally broke the 100 million viewer mark.

This super-sized audience has always commands high ad prices since it offers marketers unique access to a concentrated mass audience. CBS reported that prices floated between $2.5 and $3.0 million, although certain slots went higher. If an average of $30 million is assumed, the effective CPM last night would have been $28.17.

Since CPMs for global viewers during broadcast primetime float around $15, the Super Bowl CPM would be roughly double. This would also be roughly parallel to relationship between broadcast primetime and the Super Bowl within the Household CPM, as reported by the TV Bureau of Advertising.

This is the 100% price premium is the value given by the market towards being able to reach over a third of the U.S. population at exactly the same time. This unique opportunity affords a brand message to effectively become common culture within the span of 30 seconds. Now, whether or not an advertisers use this time wisely is another matter. You can be the judge; see all the spots from last night here at Ad Age.

Last night the final season of Lost began with a double episode premiere, garnering an average of 12.1 million viewers. The good news is that this is about 6% more than last season’s premiere, and it’s also the first time since Season 2 that a premiere has a larger audience than its precursor. The better news is that the audience growth over-indexed in the 18-49 demographic, attracting more than 10% than last season.

The problem is that comparing yesterday’s performance with last season is somewhat lax since new audience lows were marked for both the premiere and finale last year. The 11th episode of last season also garnered the smallest audience of any first-run Lost episode to date: 10.8 million during the 11th episode. This was a far cry from the performance of first half of Season 2 when Lost was attracting over 20 million viewers.

As I mentioned in a posting back in March 2009, Lost has “lost” its audience due to its complicated serialized plotline, a weakness which was exacerbated by a long hiatus in the middle of Season 3 as well the 2007 writer’s strike which delayed and shortened Season 4. Luckily this season seems to be free from any similar debilitations so the series might end up growing its audience over the course of its last season, which if it were to happen might yield a rumored Lost spin-0ff.