The summer ended today and it seems to have been a mediocre season for Hollywood. The total U.S. box office gross between Memorial Day and Labor Day was $4.3 billion, which is 1.4% less than 2008 but 4% above 2007 per Variety. At the beginning of the summer the box office was 24% above last year but it now stands less than a third.

So how did the year-over-year growth drop so much over 36 weeks? First of all Hollywood had an unusually strong first quarter and it was simply difficult to maintain such a large difference given the inherent volatility of movie attendance. Secondly the summer season is much more important; the average summer weekly gross is 40% more than other seasons. The summer is when the industry makes it or breaks it.

Lastly the 2008 summer was simply hot, with more stronger releases like The Dark Knight, grossed over $500 million domestically, as well as Iron Man and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull which both made more than $300 million. So far this summer only one movie, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, has passed the $300 million mark. Looking forward the total 2009 box office is $7.4 billion which is 7% above last year so it should still be a strong year for Hollywood.

Update: Check out a Kim Master’s posting at The Daily Beast, “Hollywood’s Fake Math”,  which is a bit more negative in its assessment of the summer theatrical movie performance since it bases the comparison on tickets and not dollars.

Two weeks ago I noted how the U.S. domestic box office has been outperforming on a year-to-date basis (YTD). Figures through mid July tally ticket sales at $5.9 billion, up 15% YTD.

Looking at the cumulative ticket sales a large growth occurred during the first part of the year. Up through the first “third” of this year (the first 17 weeks right before the summer season as of the first week of May), ticket sales totaled $3.1 billion, about 22% more than the same period last year.

However, looking at the just the summer, between weeks 18 and 28 (highlighted in yellow below), the performance has been less outstanding. For this period, 2009 ticket sales stand at $2.8 billion, about 7.8% more than last summer’s sales at the same point.

It is possible that Hollywood had a stronger first quarter because of stronger titles or stronger demand. In another post I’ve noted how few big budget films open up during the first quarter and how this may be an opportunity for Hollywood. During the beginning of the year there was speculation that the recession was creating a need for “escapism” and thereby driving greater movie attendance.

In any case it seems that attendance growth is dissipating and that the rest of the summer will continue along the same trend. Although this past weekend Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince opened up strong to $77.8 million, this is half of the $158.4 million The Dark Knight made during the same weekend last year during its opening. Comparing total ticket sales for the top 12 performers during the same weekend, 2009 also undperforms 2008: $152.2 million to $253.6 million. Considering that The Dark Knight went on to be the number one movie in 2009, grossing $441.6 million domestically, it may be difficult for Harry Potter and the rest of the pack to keep up. Given that I don’t see any with true blockbuster caliber in the pipeline during the next seven weeks of this summer, it is probable that the lead 2009′s box office has over last year will lessen.

I’ve always been a Star Wars fan. I adored the first Star Wars when I saw it, but fell asleep at Star Trek: The Motion Picture. The latter was probably too sophisticated for a seven year old, but I never really got into the franchise when I grew older.

Still, I find myself pretty excited about the tomorrow’s release of Star Trek. First of all, all of the trailers have been fantastic.

Secondly, the movie is getting great reviews (95% on Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer). It seems to me that this new version will reinvigorate the franchise while also raising it to a level it had never achieved previously, when it was eclipsed by the Star Wars and the like. I also believe that the other big-budget movies released this summer will not be as well received, despite being well-known franchises- Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra, Terminator Salvation, etc. This may  propel return viewings of Star Trek.

So basically I’m saying that Star Trek will be this summer’s big blockbuster, making $100 to $125 million domestically during the opening weekend, and grossing over $400 million, just in the U.S.A. Iron Man, 2008′s #2 grosser, made $98.6 million during its May 2 opening weekend; incidentally that title was also a Paramount release. It might be a good time to buy Viacom stock.

Update: Star Trek made an estimated $72.5 million over the weekend, far less than I had estimated, and less than $85 million than X-Men Origins: Wolverine made the previous weekend (currently 2009′s biggest opening weekend). Wolverine’s greater draw is most likely attributed to the star power that the Hugh Jackman brought, as well as the difference in franchise momentum. The last title of the series, X-Men: The Last Stand, made $102.7 million its opening weekend in 2006 while Star Trek’s previous theatrical release, Star Trek: First Contact, made $30.7 million in 1996.